Figure 2

Model projections depending on ecological-economic scenarios (a) Population estimates; (b) Fecundity; (c) Elephant prices in constant thousand USD; (d) Profit ratio. The different scenarios within each figure are: (i) Current level of exports and declining wild pool; (ii) No export and declining wild pool at a growth rate of 0.92; (iii) No export and stable wild pool; (iv) No export and growing wild pool at a growth rate of 1.03; (v) Maternity-leave compensation scheme with no export and declining wild pool. The median value of the 500 simulations is shown in contrasted color. The gray line in (d) shows one-year working income as a reference. (d) does not show the profit ratio for the maternity-leave scenario (v) as it tends to infinity.