Figure 1

MSVAR estimates of changes in effective population size, quantification and timing of a population bottleneck in the Bornean elephant population. Note that for illustrative purposes, only the plot for the pooled Bornean elephant samples is shown (population-level results are presented in Figure S1); (a) The log₁₀ ratio of current to ancestral population size (N₀/N₁). Solid lines (two independent runs) correspond to the exponential population size change model. The dotted black and grey vertical lines corresponds to the absence of population size change, log (N₀/N₁) = 0 and 95% quantile of the posterior distribution, respectively. The prior distribution is shown for comparison (flat dotted line), (b) Posterior distributions of the current (N₀ in thick lines) and ancestral (N₁ in dashed lines) effective population size using an exponential model. Different curves correspond to the posterior distribution obtained by independent MCMC runs. Dotted lines correspond to the different priors used for N₀ and N₁, (c) The posterior distribution of the time since population bottleneck is represented on a logarithmic scale. The different black vertical long dashed lines correspond to recent introduction (RI) and ancient colonization (AC), respectively. There is no evidence of a population bottleneck closer to the period of recent introduction (i.e. 300 years ago). The most extreme 5% and 95% quantile of the posterior distribution are shown as black dotted lines. The prior is shown as dot-dashed line, its median being 100,000 years ago.