Figure 2

Results: Île-de-France région, model calibration at the scale of municipalities. (a) Time course of the riots: data (dots) and model (continuous curves)–results presented here are aggregated by département. (b) Total number of events, model vs. data. Each dot represents one municipality. In order to compute the total sum of events in the data, missing values were filled using linear interpolation. (c) Temporal unfolding, model vs. data. Date (unit = day) of the maximum rioting activity, shown for the 12 most active municipalities (those with more than 30 events). Each circle has a diameter proportional to the size of the reference population of the corresponding municipality. The red lines depict the identity diagonal line. (d) Geographic map of the total rioting activity. Data (left) vs Model (right), shown for the inner suburb of Paris (the “petite couronne”, départements 92, 93 and 94). For each municipality, the colour codes the total number of events (the warmer the larger, same scale for both panels; grey areas: data not available). The maps have been generated with the Mapping toolbox of the MATLAB⁴³ software making use of the Open Street Map data ©OpenStreetMap contributors (https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright).