Figure 4
From: Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast
Seasonal forecasts for the 2003 and 2007 events. (a) Country-specific Equitable Threat Score (ETS) for each CSI forecast experiment. Low yielding event is defined each time at least 50% of initial condition ensemble members result in CSI belonging to the lower quartile range. Scores above 0 (equal to or below 0) indicate skill (no skill). (b) Forecast probabilities for low (CSI in the lower quartile range) and high (CSI in the upper quartile range) yielding events in 2003. The red and blue shading indicate the probability of CSI being very different from normal levels. The intensity of the colour indicates the probability of such an event occurring in summer, following the forecast initialisation. (c) Same as (b), but for 2007.
