Figure 4

(a) Climatologic seasonal cycles of mixed layer depth and model simulated surface chlorophyll-a (Chla) for the hindcast period (gray and light red lines) and for the ENSEMBLE mean in the forecasts (black and red lines). The individual members’ simulations for the forecast are included as thin discontinuous lines. (b) Scatter plot of the annual accumulated extension of the deep convection area (defined as the region where mixed layer depth > 1000 m) and the magnitude of the Chla bloom in the different scenarios’ simulations.