Figure 3

The SWR and THF patterns preceding a decadal GMST anomaly. (a–d) Regression patterns at lag −5, leading GMST by 5 years. Net shortwave radiation leading GMST by 5 years (a); same for upwelling shortwave radiation (b); downwelling shortwave radiation (c); Turbulent fluxes (d). All regression patterns are in (W m⁻² K⁻¹). In (a,d) colour intervals are 2 W m⁻² K⁻¹, but the first and last intervals are −60 to −13 and 13 to 60 W m⁻² K⁻¹. Only significant values using 95% confidence intervals are shown. This figure has been created with the free Ferret software package developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and available from www.ferret.noaa.gov.