Table 2 Observed versus predicted trip frequencies to capital cities for each survey country. Here, observed trip frequencies are the number of observed trips to the capital city divided by the total number of observed trips.

From: Mathematical models of human mobility of relevance to malaria transmission in Africa

Trip origin and destination:

No. observed trips to capital city/total no. observed trips:

Observed trip frequency (95% CI):

Expected trip frequency (gravity model):

Expected trip frequency (radiation model):

Mopti & Fatoma – Bamako

32/131

0.24 (0.18–0.32)

0.140

0.042

Baya – Bamako

187/400

0.47 (0.42–0.52)

0.495

0.283

Barouéli & Boidié – Bamako

183/380

0.48 (0.43–0.53)

0.369

0.170

Sapone – Ouagadougou

157/272

0.58 (0.52–0.63)

0.675

0.429

Bousse – Ouagadougou

240/467

0.51 (0.47–0.56)

0.578

0.362

Kitwe – Lusaka

44/286

0.15 (0.12–0.20)

0.040

0.040

Nakonde – Lusaka

32/205

0.16 (0.11–0.21)

0.034

0.014

Chipata – Lusaka

46/246

0.19 (0.14–0.24)

0.039

0.022

Samfya – Lusaka

13/217

0.060 (0.035–0.100)

0.048

0.014

Ifakara – Dar es Salaam

96/320

0.30 (0.25–0.35)

0.105

0.100

Mtwara – Dar es Salaam

69/270

0.26 (0.21–0.31)

0.130

0.234

Muheza – Dar es Salaam

59/283

0.21 (0.17–0.26)

0.188

0.238

  1. Expected trip frequencies are the equivalent quantity predicted by radiation model B and the gravity model with the destination population size raised to a power, τ, as parameterized in Table 1. 95% confidence intervals for observed trips assume a binomial distribution.
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