Figure 3

Top panels show probabilities of being the most cost effective of all possible strategies for different times at first notifications when considering temperature records observed during the Italian outbreak in 2007 (a), with temperatures decreased (b) or increased (c) by 1.5 °C. Bottom panels show probabilities of being the most cost effective among the considered single strategies for different times at first notifications with the observed temperature records (d), with temperatures decreased (e) or increased (f) by 1.5 °C