Figure 3
From: Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes
Annual air temperature projections at QIC summit. Annual mean air temperature (Ta) from 2.5° ERA-interim reanalysis (thick black line, 1979–2016), historical (gray, 1950–2005) and future (2006–2100) RCP4.5 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red) simulations. Ta at QIC summit elevation was calculated using the lapse rate between 400 and 500 hPa levels. Each data set was bias-corrected with AWS temperature data (2005–2016) from QIC summit. Thick lines represent the historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ensembles of 16 CMIP5 models and shading represents the 95% confidence interval. Likely ranges for QIC’s air temperature projections by the end of the 21st century are indicated by vertical bars.
