Table 1 Migration model rankings based on Bezier log marginal likelihood (lmL) comparisons.

Migration set	Model description	lmL	Model probability	Model rank	Θ (±95% CI)
TR vertical	Symmetric	−81177	0	4
	Downward	−44217	0	3
	Upward	−7151	0	2
	Panmixia	0	1	1	3.96 (2.13–5.80)
RW vertical	Symmetric	−54509	0	4
	Downward	−26709	0	3
	Upward	−14807	0	2
	Panmixia	0	1	1	21.43 (18.87–24.87)
SR vertical	Symmetric	−82409	0	4
	Downward	−11180	0	2
	Upward	−52940	0	3
	Panmixia	0	1	1	1.10 (0–3.27)
GR vertical	Symmetric	−509986	0	2
	Downward	−515363	0	3
	Upward	−1362433	0	4
	Panmixia	0	1	1	15.30 (12.80–18.33)
North/South	Symmetric	−54509.16	0	4
horizontal	Northward	−26708.92	0	3
	Southward	−14807.48	0	2
	Panmixia	0	1	1	2.57 (0.53–4.60)
East/West	Symmetric	−81176.92	0	3
horizontal	Westward	−44217.2	0	2
	Eastward	−7151.01	0	4
	Panmixia	0	1	1	11.9 (9.07–14.33)

Model probabilities are listed and ranked according to increasing likelihoods, with the most likely model for each migration set indicated by a ‘1’. Estimate of mutation-scaled population size (Θ) with 95% confidence intervals are listed for the most likely model. Vertical migration models were tested between “shallow” (10 m and 16 m) and “deep” (25 m and 35 m) populations at each sampling site denoted in Fig. 1. North/South horizontal connectivity models combined depth zones into a single population per site and horizontal migration was tested in South Water Caye Marine Reserve (SR, RW, TR; GR excluded). East/West horizontal connectivity models combined depth zones into a single population for sites in South Water Caye Marine Reserve (SR, RW, TR) and Glover’s Reef Marine Reserve (GR) and horizontal migration was tested between the marine reserves. Model descriptions as follows: Symmetric- symmetric migration; Downward- migration from shallow to deep; Upward- migration from deep to shallow; Northward- migration from south to north; Southward- migration from north to south; Westward- migration from east to west; Eastward- migration from west to east; Panmixia- a single panmictic population.

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