Table 1 Recommendations for addressing uncertainty in population viability analysis (PVA) for endangered species recovery planning.

PVA methods

1. Conduct comprehensive sensitivity analysis;

2. Avoid underestimation of stochastic threat factors due to field data of limited duration;

3. Interpret PVA output as illuminating system behavior rather than projecting specific outcomes;

Recovery criteria

4. Base recovery criteria and other conservation goals on those metrics that prove most robust to uncertainty, rather than solely on extinction probability;

5. Address the implications of data uncertainty via use of values for recovery criteria and conservation goals that incorporate precautionary buffers;

6. Address uncertainty regarding the future magnitude of specific threats by specifying their alleviation via a quantitative recovery criterion or goal;

Policy development

7. Establish policy guidance specifying appropriate normative thresholds, quantitative frameworks for criteria development, and best practices for determining the composition and operation of recovery teams;

8. Strengthen scientific integrity policies to require independent peer review of adherence to PVA best practices and substantive response to reviews.