Table 2 Number of years of interventions required to reach mf and ATP transmission thresholds.

From: Accelerating river blindness elimination by supplementing MDA with a vegetation “slash and clear” vector control strategy: a data-driven modeling analysis

Village

(baseline mf

prevalence (%))

mf threshold

ATP threshold

No S&C

S&C before peak biting season

S&C during peak biting season

S&C

monthly

No S&C

S&C before peak biting season

S&C during peak biting season

S&C monthly

Model-predicted thresholds

Palaure Pacunaci (100)

34 (24–49)

26 (16–45)

25 (16–43)

24 (16–41)

28 (16–50)

10 (2–23)

8 (1–18)

4 (1–12)

Masaloa (76)

31 (19–49)

19 (11–33)

19 (10–31)

18 (10–29)

20 (10–34)

7 (1–17)

5 (1–14)

1 (1–9)

Nyimanji (58)

30 (18–47)

19 (10–34)

19 (10–33)

18 (10–32)

18 (8–33)

7 (1–18)

5 (1–14)

1 (1–9)

Olimbuni/Aroga (24)

28 (15–46)

20 (9–38)

19 (9–36)

19 (9–34)

17 (8–32)

8 (1–18)

5 (1–14)

1 (1–9)

WHO thresholds

Palaure Pacunaci (100)

25 (15–45)

24 (15–41)

23 (15–40)

22 (14–37)

19 (9–45)

16 (7–32)

13 (4–26)

9 (1–19)

Masaloa (76)

20 (11–34)

19 (10–32)

19 (10–31)

18 (10–29)

13 (4–25)

10 (1–21)

8 (1–18)

1 (1–12)

Nyimanji (58)

19 (9–34)

18 (9–31)

17 (9–30)

17 (9–29)

11 (2–24)

8 (1–20)

6 (1–16)

1 (1–10)

Olimbuni/Aroga (24)

15 (5–30)

14 (5–28)

14 (5–26)

14 (5–26)

10 (1–22)

7 (1–17)

4 (1–13)

1 (1–8)

  1. The number of years of required interventions is reported as the median prediction with its 95% confidence interval. All “slash and clear” scenarios are in combination with annual MDA at 80% population coverage. Results for both the model-predicted site-specific thresholds (representing 95% elimination probability) and the global WHO thresholds are shown.