Figure 4
From: Improving the odds of drug development success through human genomics: modelling study
Back calculation of proportion of true target-disease relationships (γpc) studied in preclinical development, inferred from observed rates of clinical success (SC = 0.1) and preclinical success (Spc = 0.4). Estimates of γpc assume power in clinical phase development(1 − βc) = 0.8 and false positive rate in clinical development, αc = 0.05, so that the proportion of true target-disease relationships in clinical development, γc = 0.0667. The graph shows estimates of γpc (red line) for a range of values for power (1 − βpc) in preclinical development and corresponding estimates of the preclinical false positive rate, αpc (blue line). (See text for details).
