Table 2 The relationship α, β, and γ TP, TN, FP FN, and the declared success rate (s) in preclinical and clinical drug development (see text for details).
From: Improving the odds of drug development success through human genomics: modelling study
True relationship | No true relationship | All | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stage 1: Preclinical development \({\boldsymbol{(}}{\boldsymbol{pc}}{\boldsymbol{)}}\) | Declared success | \({{{TP}}_{{pc}}=\gamma }_{{pc}}(1-{\beta }_{{pc}})\) | \({{{FP}}_{{pc}}=\alpha }_{{pc}}(1-{\gamma }_{{pc}})\) | \({S}_{{pc}}\) |
Declared failure | \({{{FN}}_{{pc}}=\gamma }_{{pc}}{\beta }_{{pc}}\) | \({{TN}}_{{pc}}=(1-{\alpha }_{{pc}})(1-{\gamma }_{{pc}})\) | \(1-{S}_{{pc}}\) | |
All | \({\gamma }_{{pc}}\) | \(1-{\gamma }_{{pc}}\) | 1 | |
Stage 2: Clinical Development \({\boldsymbol{(}}{\boldsymbol{c}}{\boldsymbol{)}}\) | Declared success | \({{TP}}_{c}={\gamma }_{c}(1-{\beta }_{c})\) | \({{{FP}}_{c}=\alpha }_{c}(1-{\gamma }_{c})\) | \({S}_{c}\) |
Declared failure | \({{FN}}_{c}={\gamma }_{c}{\beta }_{c}\) | \({{TN}}_{c}=(1-{\alpha }_{c})(1-{\gamma }_{c})\) | \(1-{S}_{c}\) | |
All | \({\gamma }_{c}\) = \({{TDR}}_{{pc}}\) | \(1-{\gamma }_{c}\) | 1 |
