Table 4 A priori estimates of preclinical (pc), clinical (c) and overall (o) drug development success contrasting orthodox (non-genomic) with genomic approaches.

\(\bar{C}\)	γ_pc	α_pc	β_pc	FDR_pc	S_pc	TDR_pc = γ_c	α_c	β_c	FDR_c	TDR_c	S_c	S_o
a
10	0.0001	0.05	0.2	0.9984024	0.05008	0.0015976	0.05	0.2	0.97503657	0.02496343	0.051198203	0.00256
100	0.001	0.05	0.2	0.98423645	0.05075	0.01576355	0.05	0.2	0.79601594	0.20398406	0.06182266	0.00314
1000	0.01	0.05	0.2	0.86086957	0.0575	0.13913043	0.05	0.2	0.27887324	0.72112676	0.154347826	0.00888
10	0.0001	0.00000005	0.2	0.00062455	0.00008	0.99937545	0.05	0.2	0.000039057	0.99996094	0.79953159	0.000064
100	0.001	0.00000005	0.2	0.000062434	0.0008	0.99993757	0.05	0.2	3.9023E-06	0.9999961	0.799953175	0.00064
1000	0.01	0.00000005	0.2	6.1875E-06	0.008	0.99999381	0.05	0.2	3.8672E-07	0.99999961	0.799995359	0.0064
b
10	0.0005	0.05	0.2	0.99205955	0.050375	0.00794045	0.05	0.2	0.8864745	0.1135255	0.055955335	0.00282
100	0.005	0.05	0.2	0.9255814	0.05375	0.074418605	0.05	0.2	0.43736264	0.56263736	0.105813953	0.00569
1000	0.05	0.05	0.2	0.54285714	0.0875	0.45714286	0.05	0.2	0.06909091	0.93090909	0.392857143	0.03438
10	0.0005	0.00000005	0.2	0.00012492	0.00040005	0.99987508	0.05	0.2	7.8085E-06	0.99999219	0.799906309	0.00032
100	0.005	0.00000005	0.2	0.000012437	0.00400005	0.99998756	0.05	0.2	7.7734E-07	0.99999922	0.799990672	0.0032
1000	0.05	0.00000005	0.2	0.000001875	0.04000008	0.99999881	0.05	0.2	7.4219E-08	0.99999993	0.799999109	0.032

TDR, FDR, S_pc, S_c and S_o are presented at different values of α (Type 1 error rate) β (Type 2 error rate) and γ (proportion causal and druggable targets).
(a) \({\gamma }_{pc}=(\bar{C}/{N}_{G})({N}_{T}/{N}_{G})\)when the sample space is defined by \({N}_{G}\times {N}_{D}\), and (b) \({\gamma }_{pc}=(\bar{C}/{N}_{G})({N}_{T}/{N}_{T}\,)\) when the sample space \({N}_{T}\times {N}_{D}\) is restricted to the druggable genome. See text for details.

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