Table 1 Generalized linear models of tree seedling and propagule density (stems/10 m²), and plot-level tree species composition.

Generalized Linear Model	Distribution	df	pR² (CV)	RMSE (CV)	MAE (CV)	P
Total Seedling & Propagule Stems = 3.26 + (FFI^† × 0.74) − (MOIST^‡ × 0.45) + 0.38(FFI × MS^§) + (MS × 0.03)	Negative Binomial	44	0.59 (0.44)	56.92 (58.19)	32.02 (39.13)	<0.001
Conifer Seedlings = 2.45 + (FFI × 0.99) − (TSF × 0.8) + (%CON^†† × 0.73) − (MS × 0.68) + 0.58(TSF × RO^‡‡) + 0.38(FFI** × MS) − (RO × 0.2)	Negative Binomial	41	0.61 (0.43)	54.29 (61.69)	29.21 (39.63)	<0.001
Broadleaf Seedlings & Propagules = 0.98−2.32(%MIN^§§ × BA*) − (%MIN × 2.13) − (BA × 1.4) − (TSF** × 0.78) − (RO × 0.69) − 0.6(RO × MS) − (MS × 0.48)	Poisson	41	0.45 (0.48)	6.52 (7.26)	4.64 (5.65)	<0.001
Proportion Conifer Stems = 0.60 + (FFI × 1.18) + (%MIN × 1.02) + (RO × 0.98) − 0.96(%MIN × MS) − (MS × 0.4)	Binomial	43	0.49 (0.52)	0.28 (0.3)	0.22 (0.25)	0.004

Significant (p ≤ 0.05) predictor variables are bolded in equations. Model fits are described using averages of 10-fold cross-validated (CV) root-mean-square-error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and pseudo R² (pR²), derived from 100 repeats. Model degrees of freedom (n = 49) are reported in the column df. Model p-values were derived from χ² tests of model deviance explained relative to a null model.
^†FFI: Fire-free interval (years).
^‡MOIST: Site moisture (from subxeric to subhydric).
^§MS: Moisture stress (mm), as represented by site-specific cumulative anomalies of summer climatic moisture deficit (CMD) over 0 – 4 years post-fire.
**TSF: Time since last fire (years) at time of sampling.
^††%CON: Proportion of conifer trees in the pre-fire cohort (%) calculated from basal area (m² ha⁻¹).
^‡‡RO: Residual organic matter depth (cm).
^§§%MIN: Proportion of exposed mineral soil and rock (%) at the surface.
***BA: Pre-fire basal area of trees (m² ha⁻¹).

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