Figure 5
(a) Heat map displaying the percentage of unexplained variation (1−adjusted R2) in the AR(1) AIC(i*) models spanning the 2004–2010 timeframe in the US. A larger model explanatory power (R2) adjusted for the number of predictors (adjusted R2) is indicated with lighter shading. (b) Is a heat map illustrating the state models’ predictive accuracy (52-week forecasting RMSE in 2011) where lighter shading represents a lower RMSE value and a better performing state AR(1) AIC(i*) model.
