Figure 1
From: Robust assessment of the time of emergence of precipitation change in West Africa
(a) Ensemble mean change in July-to-September cumulated precipitation during the 21st century, computed as the difference between 2080–2099 and 1986–2005 averages. Significant values are displayed, after significance is assessed with a Student’s t-test at 95% confidence level. Blue rectangles show the domains where West and East Sahel indices are computed. Multi-model time of emergence (TOE) for cumulated precipitation, estimated by using (b) ‘KS test’, (c) ‘smoothing’ and (d) ‘linear trend’ methods. Blue/red/grey shadings display TOE for positive/negative/no change in cumulated precipitation, based on 50% multi-model agreement. White areas indicate that multi-model TOE cannot be assessed (see Methods Section for details on the assessment of multi-model TOE).
