Table 5 Simulation values of three scenarios of Chinese Urbanization-energy SD model.
From: System dynamics modelling of urbanization under energy constraints in China
AED scenario | ERC scenario | LOD scenario | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 2020 | 2035 | 2050 | 2015 | 2020 | 2035 | 2050 | 2015 | 2020 | 2035 | 2050 | ||
Total GDP volume (trillion Yuan) | 19.72 | 28.78 | 89.37 | 221.10 | 19.72 | 24.81 | 42.64 | 127.63 | 19.72 | 26.67 | 71.63 | 171.97 | |
Urbanization level (%) | 56.09 | 60.67 | 70.00 | 76.79 | 56.09 | 60.56 | 69.59 | 75.96 | 56.09 | 60.66 | 71.00 | 76.41 | |
Total amount of energy consumption (Mtce) | 4126.16 | 4521.54 | 8353.86 | 13313.46 | 4126.16 | 4238.78 | 5750.57 | 9238.31 | 4126.16 | 4407.88 | 6929.79 | 11416.15 | |
Industrial energy consumption | (Mtce) | 3219.48 | 3370.45 | 5841.15 | 8225.31 | 3219.48 | 3209.56 | 3658.51 | 5784.85 | 3219.48 | 3321.66 | 4742.39 | 7094.85 |
(%) | 78.03 | 74.54 | 69.92 | 61.78 | 78.03 | 75.72 | 63.62 | 62.62 | 78.03 | 75.36 | 68.43 | 62.15 | |
Residential energy consumption | (Mtce) | 508.46 | 699.89 | 1893.74 | 4425.74 | 508.46 | 611.33 | 1301.38 | 2816.01 | 508.46 | 658.74 | 1678.91 | 3682.58 |
(%) | 12.32 | 15.47 | 22.67 | 33.24 | 12.32 | 14.42 | 22.63 | 30.48 | 12.32 | 14.94 | 24.23 | 32.26 | |
Transportation energy consumption | (Mtce) | 398.22 | 451.20 | 618.98 | 662.41 | 398.22 | 417.89 | 579.62 | 637.45 | 398.22 | 427.48 | 605.62 | 638.72 |
(%) | 9.65 | 9.98 | 7.41 | 4.98 | 9.65 | 9.86 | 10.08 | 6.90 | 9.65 | 9.70 | 8.74 | 5.59 | |
Coal | (Mtce) | 2610.02 | 3084.94 | 3646.27 | 8411.29 | 2610.02 | 2673.21 | 2707.86 | 2332.90 | 2610.02 | 2673.21 | 2707.86 | 2332.90 |
(%) | 72.10 | 71.03 | 58.89 | 60.78 | 72.10 | 67.13 | 51.83 | 35.97 | 72.10 | 65.95 | 45.34 | 23.47 | |
Oil | (Mtce) | 307.70 | 331.48 | 414.43 | 518.13 | 307.70 | 388.10 | 558.42 | 321.87 | 307.70 | 388.10 | 558.41 | 321.87 |
(%) | 8.50 | 7.63 | 6.69 | 3.74 | 8.50 | 9.75 | 10.69 | 4.96 | 8.50 | 9.57 | 9.35 | 3.24 | |
Natural gas | (Mtce) | 177.38 | 239.62 | 590.73 | 1456.34 | 177.38 | 233.71 | 417.59 | 378.37 | 177.38 | 233.71 | 417.59 | 378.37 |
(%) | 4.90 | 5.52 | 9.54 | 10.52 | 4.90 | 5.87 | 7.99 | 5.83 | 4.90 | 5.77 | 6.99 | 3.81 | |
Non-fossil energy | (Mtce) | 524.90 | 687.00 | 1540.3 | 3453.30 | 524.90 | 687.00 | 1540.3 | 3453.3 | 524.90 | 758.48 | 2288.5 | 6904.87 |
(%) | 14.50 | 15.82 | 24.88 | 24.95 | 14.50 | 17.25 | 29.48 | 53.24 | 14.50 | 18.71 | 38.32 | 69.48 | |
CO2 emissions (billion tons) | 7.15 | 8.31 | 13.73 | 23.22 | 7.15 | 7.69 | 8.62 | 7.07 | 7.15 | 7.69 | 8.76 | 7.07 | |
SO2 emissions (Mt) | 21.97 | 25.68 | 30.92 | 31.67 | 21.97 | 17.18 | 16.29 | 10.70 | 21.97 | 19.77 | 16.57 | 9.79 | |
