Figure 5

Plots of the location of Mohr-Coulomb (orange) and tensile failure (blue) shown on 2D slices through the 3D model space. The cross section from which these D slices were obtained is illustrated by the line in Fig. 1 labeled A-A’. The 1998–2011 eruption cycle is shown at left (a-j; grey background), and the 2011–2015 eruption cycle is shown at right (k-t; blue background). Failure at the time of the model predicted eruption is shown in sub-figures on the left side of each set (a-e and k-o), the time at which there is tensile failure at the reservoir boundary and through-going Mohr-Coulomb failure. The failure at the time of the observed eruption is shown in subfigures on the right of each set (f-j and p-t). Note that a single model element in tensile failure at the reservoir boundary is considered to be in tensile failure, which is difficult to illustrate in a 2D model slice, though tensile failure at the reservoir boundary occurs at each predicted eruption. Arrows point to the area of initiation for tensile failure.