Table 1 Summary of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway assumptions underlying urban development (based on Jones and O'Neill19; Jiang and O'Neill18 and KC and Lutz20).
From: Future urban development exacerbates coastal exposure in the Mediterranean
Urbanisation rate | Urban spatial patterns | Population growth | GDP growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SSP 1 | Rapid | Urban expansion well managed (compact) | Global population growth is relatively low; fertility is medium in wealthier OECD countries | High-income growth, but slower economic growth over the longer term |
SSP 2 | Central | Historical spatial patterns | Global population growth is moderate and levels off in the second half of the century | Medium income growth |
SSP 3 | Slow | Mixed urban spatial patterns | Population growth is rapid (except for the wealthier OECD countries) leading to high demand for urban space | Low-income growth |
SSP 4 | Rapid in medium and low-income countries, central in high-income countries | Mixed spatial patterns | Population growth is low in Mediterranean countries | Low-income growth |
SSP 5 | Rapid | High urban sprawl, urban expansion is not well managed (compared to SSP1) | Population growth is high in wealthier OECD countries, low population growth in developing countries | Rapid growth of the global economy |
