Figure 6

Epidemiological data (red), adjourned to the 30th of August, for six sample countries compared to an updated simulation. For all countries, except Croatia, the second wave from case (e) simulation is anticipated by 4 weeks, thus in agreement with the results of case (a). To match the slow growing phase in between the two waves, we added a linearly growing term, in line to what we did for the calibration of the case (e) simulations. The bands are generated by varying the infection rates \(\gamma _i\) within \(10\%\).