Figure 1
modified from Jarnevich et al. 29 to exclude management-induced ecological transitions and retain transitions related to seed dispersal, patch infill, seedbank mortality, and fire. The three areas (in parentheses) for each stratum include the area of the landscape in unsusceptible and susceptible desert, respectively, based on habitat suitability thresholds of low, moderate, and high susceptibility to buffelgrass establishment. Note that in scenarios without fire, the fire-induced ecological transitions were not included. Percent of detected and undetected buffelgrass cover is shown. (b) Flowchart demonstrating state class aging and patch infill transition between two time steps (t1 and t2). The parameters that influence patch aging and cover-class transition are the infill rate (i.e., the time within a given cover class), the probability of a wet-year, and the wet-year patch infill acceleration factor. This example uses the moderate infill rate (in bold, 0–7 represents number of years spent in the cover class) and demonstrates multiple paths depending on if the year is a wet-year, and if wet, the wet-year infill acceleration factor scenario (slow, moderate, or fast). The patch infill transition occurs only when the infill rate reaches the maximum age for the given cover class, otherwise the patch infill transition does not occur and only the class age increases.
(a) Conceptual state and transition model (STSM) for two strata, unsusceptible desert and susceptible desert,
