Table 2 Results from 30-year simulations for nine scenarios combining ecological uncertainties and initialization uncertainty for Saguaro National Park including the number of simulation years with a fire (defined as a year with an ignition and a burned area > 0 ha), cumulative burned area over the 30-year simulation, the amount of the entire study area that burned in at least one year of the 30-year simulation (landscape burned area), and the number of fires burning to the edge of the high-elevation forest (fires to forest).
Patch infill rate | Initialization | Number of years with fire | Cumulative burned area (ha) | Landscape burned area (ha) | Fires to forest edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dry-slow | Low | 14.6 (11–20) | 9142 (3684–14,149) | 6788 (3582–8962) | 3.95 (1–6) |
Dry-slow | Moderate | 15.2 (12–20) | 8486 (3548–14,403) | 6500 (3503–9922) | 3.45 (0–7) |
Dry-slow | High | 14 (8–19) | 8131 (1429–13,356) | 5878 (1429–9500) | 3.35 (0–6) |
Moderate | Low | 13 (7–16) | 10,897 (2294–19,243) | 7888 (2195–10,852) | 3.85 (1–8) |
Moderate | Moderate | 14.1 (10–18) | 12,397 (2850–20,213) | 8427 (2799–12,180) | 3.8 (0–8) |
Moderate | High | 13.8 (8–22) | 13,437 (2589–26,687) | 7912 (2596–11,307) | 4.7 (1–9) |
Wet-fast | Low | 13.6 (11–17) | 17,064 (6105–34,419) | 10,897 (4619–15,423) | 3.8 (0–10) |
Wet-fast | Moderate | 13.6 (10–20) | 20,694 (9816–34,077) | 13,317 (8696–16,951) | 4.15 (2–8) |
Wet-fast | High | 14.6 (10–21) | 22,596 (6593–41,774) | 13,371 (6618–18,274) | 4.45 (1–8) |
