Table 1 Patient characteristics in the model development cohort by the worst severity during the disease course.
Variable | Supportive care | O2 therapy | Critical care | Mortality | p value | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of patients | 4780 (85.4%) | 512 (9.1%) | 241 (4.3%) | 63 (1.1%) | < 0.001 | 5596 (100%) |
Days to recovery or death, mean (SD) | 25.5 (10.3) | 30.0 (12.1) | 36.3 (16.1) | 15.2 (13.4) | < 0.001 | 25.6 (11.0) |
Age | ||||||
0–9 years | 66 (100%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | < 0.001 | 66 (100%) |
10–19 years | 203 (99%) | 1 (0.5%) | 0 (0%) | 1 (0.5%) | 205 (100%) | |
20–29 years | 1087 (98%) | 20 (1.8%) | 0 (0%) | 2 (0.2%) | 1109 (100%) | |
30–39 years | 546 (97.2%) | 11 (2%) | 2 (0.4%) | 3 (0.5%) | 562 (100%) | |
40–49 years | 703 (95.1%) | 34 (4.6%) | 2 (0.3%) | 0 (0%) | 739 (100%) | |
50–59 years | 999 (87.6%) | 114 (10%) | 15 (1.3%) | 12 (1.1%) | 1140 (100%) | |
60–69 years | 713 (78.7%) | 135 (14.9%) | 34 (3.8%) | 24 (2.6%) | 906 (100%) | |
70–79 years | 331 (60.7%) | 125 (22.9%) | 73 (13.4%) | 16 (2.9%) | 545 (100%) | |
≥ 80 years | 132 (40.7%) | 72 (22.2%) | 115 (35.5%) | 5 (1.5%) | 324 (100%) | |
Sex | ||||||
Female | 2858 (86.9%) | 288 (8.8%) | 114 (3.5%) | 29 (0.9%) | < 0.001 | 3289 (100%) |
Male | 1922 (83.3%) | 224 (9.7%) | 127 (5.5%) | 34 (1.5%) | 2307 (100%) | |
Pregnancy | ||||||
No | 4752 (85.3%) | 512 (9.2%) | 241 (4.3%) | 63 (1.1%) | 0.353 | 5568 (100%) |
Yes | 19 (100%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 19 (100%) | |
Missing | 9 (100%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 9 (100%) | |
Body mass index (kg/cm2) | ||||||
< 18.5 | 225 (86.9%) | 16 (6.2%) | 16 (6.2%) | 2 (0.8%) | < 0.001 | 259 (100%) |
18.5–23 | 1660 (89.5%) | 127 (6.9%) | 46 (2.5%) | 21 (1.1%) | 1854 (100%) | |
23–25 | 893 (86.4%) | 108 (10.5%) | 20 (1.9%) | 12 (1.2%) | 1033 (100%) | |
25–30 | 865 (82.8%) | 125 (12%) | 39 (3.7%) | 16 (1.5%) | 1045 (100%) | |
> 30 | 178 (86%) | 20 (9.7%) | 5 (2.4%) | 4 (1.9%) | 207 (100%) | |
Missing | 959 (80.1%) | 116 (9.7%) | 115 (9.6%) | 8 (0.7%) | 1198 (100%) | |
Subjective fever | ||||||
Absent | 3818 (88.9%) | 296 (6.9%) | 148 (3.4%) | 32 (0.7%) | < 0.001 | 4294 (100%) |
Present | 962 (73.9%) | 216 (16.6%) | 93 (7.1%) | 31 (2.4%) | 1302 (100%) | |
Cough | ||||||
Absent | 2836 (86.9%) | 239 (7.3%) | 160 (4.9%) | 30 (0.9%) | < 0.001 | 3265 (100%) |
Present | 1944 (83.4%) | 273 (11.7%) | 81 (3.5%) | 33 (1.4%) | 2331 (100%) | |
Sputum | ||||||
Absent | 3456 (86.7%) | 319 (8%) | 169 (4.2%) | 41 (1%) | < 0.001 | 3985 (100%) |
Present | 1324 (82.2%) | 193 (12%) | 72 (4.5%) | 22 (1.4%) | 1611 (100%) | |
Dyspnea | ||||||
Absent | 4445 (90.1%) | 332 (6.7%) | 128 (2.6%) | 26 (0.5%) | < 0.001 | 4931 (100%) |
Present | 335 (50.4%) | 180 (27.1%) | 113 (17%) | 37 (5.6%) | 665 (100%) | |
Sore throat | ||||||
Absent | 3989 (84.4%) | 446 (9.4%) | 228 (4.8%) | 61 (1.3%) | < 0.001 | 4724 (100%) |
Present | 791 (90.7%) | 66 (7.6%) | 13 (1.5%) | 2 (0.2%) | 872 (100%) | |
Rhinorrhea | ||||||
Absent | 4216 (84.7%) | 468 (9.4%) | 235 (4.7%) | 60 (1.2%) | < 0.001 | 4979 (100%) |
Present | 564 (91.4%) | 44 (7.1%) | 6 (1%) | 3 (0.5%) | 617 (100%) | |
Myalgia | ||||||
Absent | 4005 (85.6%) | 400 (8.6%) | 220 (4.7%) | 52 (1.1%) | < 0.001 | 4677 (100%) |
Present | 775 (84.3%) | 112 (12.2%) | 21 (2.3%) | 11 (1.2%) | 919 (100%) | |
Fatigue | ||||||
Absent | 4606 (85.9%) | 475 (8.9%) | 224 (4.2%) | 58 (1.1%) | < 0.001 | 5363 (100%) |
Present | 174 (74.7%) | 37 (15.9%) | 17 (7.3%) | 5 (2.1%) | 233 (100%) | |
Headache | ||||||
Absent | 3931 (84.8%) | 421 (9.1%) | 228 (4.9%) | 53 (1.1%) | < 0.001 | 4633 (100%) |
Present | 849 (88.2%) | 91 (9.4%) | 13 (1.3%) | 10 (1%) | 963 (100%) | |
Nausea or vomiting | ||||||
Absent | 4598 (85.9%) | 470 (8.8%) | 225 (4.2%) | 59 (1.1%) | < 0.001 | 5352 (100%) |
Present | 182 (74.6%) | 42 (17.2%) | 16 (6.6%) | 4 (1.6%) | 244 (100%) | |
Diarrhea | ||||||
Absent | 4354 (85.7%) | 446 (8.8%) | 223 (4.4%) | 57 (1.1%) | 0.022 | 5080 (100%) |
Present | 426 (82.6%) | 66 (12.8%) | 18 (3.5%) | 6 (1.2%) | 516 (100%) | |
Altered consciousness | ||||||
Absent | 4772 (85.8%) | 512 (9.2%) | 218 (3.9%) | 59 (1.1%) | < 0.001 | 5561 (100%) |
Present | 8 (22.9%) | 0 (0%) | 23 (65.7%) | 4 (11.4%) | 35 (100%) | |
Diabetes mellitus | ||||||
Absent | 4322 (88%) | 397 (8.1%) | 143 (2.9%) | 47 (1%) | < 0.001 | 4909 (100%) |
Present | 458 (66.7%) | 115 (16.7%) | 98 (14.3%) | 16 (2.3%) | 687 (100%) | |
Hypertension | ||||||
Absent | 3966 (90.2%) | 304 (6.9%) | 97 (2.2%) | 31 (0.7%) | < 0.001 | 4398 (100%) |
Present | 814 (67.9%) | 208 (17.4%) | 144 (12%) | 32 (2.7%) | 1198 (100%) | |
Heart disease | ||||||
Absent | 4756 (85.9%) | 497 (9%) | 223 (4%) | 61 (1.1%) | < 0.001 | 5537 (100%) |
Present | 24 (40.7%) | 15 (25.4%) | 18 (30.5%) | 2 (3.4%) | 59 (100%) | |
Asthma | ||||||
Absent | 4682 (85.6%) | 495 (9.1%) | 228 (4.2%) | 63 (1.2%) | 0.001 | 5468 (100%) |
Present | 98 (76.6%) | 17 (13.3%) | 13 (10.2%) | 0 (0%) | 128 (100%) | |
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | ||||||
Absent | 4760 (85.7%) | 502 (9%) | 233 (4.2%) | 61 (1.1%) | < 0.001 | 5556 (100%) |
Present | 20 (50%) | 10 (25%) | 8 (20%) | 2 (5%) | 40 (100%) | |
Chronic kidney disease | ||||||
Absent | 4757 (85.9%) | 498 (9%) | 225 (4.1%) | 61 (1.1%) | < 0.001 | 5541 (100%) |
Present | 23 (41.8%) | 14 (25.5%) | 16 (29.1%) | 2 (3.6%) | 55 (100%) | |
Cancer | ||||||
Absent | 4679 (85.8%) | 490 (9%) | 219 (4%) | 63 (1.2%) | < 0.001 | 5451 (100%) |
Present | 101 (69.7%) | 22 (15.2%) | 22 (15.2%) | 0 (0%) | 145 (100%) | |
Chronic liver disease | ||||||
Absent | 4404 (84.9%) | 490 (9.4%) | 234 (4.5%) | 62 (1.2%) | 0.033 | 5190 (100%) |
Present | 61 (73.5%) | 14 (16.9%) | 7 (8.4%) | 1 (1.2%) | 83 (100%) | |
missing | 315 (97.5%) | 8 (2.5%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 323 (100%) | |
Autoimmune disease | ||||||
Absent | 4430 (84.7%) | 498 (9.5%) | 238 (4.6%) | 63 (1.2%) | 0.356 | 5229 (100%) |
Present | 29 (76.3%) | 6 (15.8%) | 3 (7.9%) | 0 (0%) | 38 (100%) | |
missing | 321 (97.6%) | 8 (2.4%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 329 (100%) | |
Dementia | ||||||
Absent | 4355 (86.3%) | 463 (9.2%) | 166 (3.3%) | 62 (1.2%) | < 0.001 | 5046 (100%) |
Present | 107 (47.8%) | 41 (18.3%) | 75 (33.5%) | 1 (0.4%) | 224 (100%) | |
missing | 318 (97.5%) | 8 (2.5%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 326 (100%) | |
Heart rate (beat/min) | ||||||
Bradycardia (< 60) | 87 (80.6%) | 15 (13.9%) | 6 (5.6%) | 0 (0%) | 0.001 | 108 (100%) |
Normal (60–100) | 3799 (86.3%) | 394 (8.9%) | 160 (3.6%) | 50 (1.1%) | 4403 (100%) | |
Tachycardia (> 100) | 784 (81.8%) | 102 (10.6%) | 61 (6.4%) | 12 (1.3%) | 959 (100%) | |
Missing | 110 (87.3%) | 1 (0.8%) | 14 (11.1%) | 1 (0.8%) | 126 (100%) | |
Body temperature (°C) | ||||||
< 37.5 | 4300 (88.0%) | 380 (7.8%) | 166 (3.4%) | 39 (0.8%) | < 0.001 | 4885 (100%) |
37.5–38 | 349 (75.4%) | 70 (15.1%) | 36 (7.8%) | 8 (1.7%) | 463 (100%) | |
38–38.5 | 74 (54.4%) | 31 (22.8%) | 21 (15.4%) | 10 (7.4%) | 136 (100%) | |
38.5 ≥ 38.5 | 32 (43.8%) | 29 (39.7%) | 6 (8.2%) | 6 (8.2%) | 73 (100%) | |
Missing | 25 (64.1%) | 2 (5.1%) | 12 (30.8%) | 0 (0%) | 39 (100%) | |
Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) | ||||||
< 120 | 1140 (87.3%) | 95 (7.3%) | 58 (4.4%) | 13 (1%) | < 0.001 | 1306 (100%) |
120–129 | 988 (86.8%) | 110 (9.7%) | 28 (2.5%) | 12 (1.1%) | 1138 (100%) | |
130–139 | 939 (86.7%) | 101 (9.3%) | 32 (3%) | 11 (1%) | 1083 (100%) | |
140–159 | 1190 (84%) | 141 (10%) | 68 (4.8%) | 18 (1.3%) | 1417 (100%) | |
≥ 160 | 402 (78.4%) | 65 (12.7%) | 37 (7.2%) | 9 (1.8%) | 513 (100%) | |
Missing | 121 (87.1%) | 0 (0%) | 18 (12.9%) | 0 (0%) | 139 (100%) | |
Diastolic blood pressure (mmHg) | ||||||
< 80 | 1763 (83.9%) | 208 (9.9%) | 104 (4.9%) | 27 (1.3%) | 0.266 | 2102 (100%) |
80–89 | 1557 (86.7%) | 156 (8.7%) | 61 (3.4%) | 22 (1.2%) | 1796 (100%) | |
90–99 | 907 (86%) | 102 (9.7%) | 36 (3.4%) | 10 (0.9%) | 1055 (100%) | |
≥ 100 | 432 (85.7%) | 46 (9.1%) | 22 (4.4%) | 4 (0.8%) | 504 (100%) | |
Missing | 121 (87.1%) | 0 (0%) | 18 (12.9%) | 0 (0%) | 139 (100%) | |
Hemoglobin (g/dL) | ||||||
Anemia | 715 (69.8%) | 162 (15.8%) | 128 (12.5%) | 20 (2%) | < 0.001 | 1025 (100%) |
Normal* | 2137 (84.7%) | 267 (10.6%) | 87 (3.4%) | 32 (1.3%) | 2523 (100%) | |
Elevated | 471 (88.5%) | 40 (7.5%) | 14 (2.6%) | 7 (1.3%) | 532 (100%) | |
Missing | 1457 (96.1%) | 43 (2.8%) | 12 (0.8%) | 4 (0.3%) | 1516 (100%) | |
Hematocrit (%) | ||||||
Anemia | 576 (66.1%) | 151 (17.3%) | 124 (14.2%) | 21 (2.4%) | < 0.001 | 872 (100%) |
Normal** | 2235 (85%) | 274 (10.4%) | 90 (3.4%) | 31 (1.2%) | 2630 (100%) | |
Elevated | 505 (88.1%) | 45 (7.9%) | 16 (2.8%) | 7 (1.2%) | 573 (100%) | |
Missing | 1464 (96.3%) | 42 (2.8%) | 11 (0.7%) | 4 (0.3%) | 1521 (100%) | |
White blood cell count (× 103/µL) | ||||||
Leukocytopenia (< 4) | 555 (80.6%) | 99 (14.4%) | 27 (3.9%) | 8 (1.2%) | < 0.001 | 689 (100%) |
Normal (4–11) | 2628 (83.3%) | 336 (10.7%) | 149 (4.7%) | 41 (1.3%) | 3154 (100%) | |
Leukocytosis (≥ 11) | 141 (59.2%) | 35 (14.7%) | 53 (22.3%) | 9 (3.8%) | 238 (100%) | |
Missing | 1456 (96.1%) | 42 (2.8%) | 12 (0.8%) | 5 (0.3%) | 1515 (100%) | |
Lymphocyte count (× 103/µL) | ||||||
Lymphocytopenia (< 1) | 407 (51.8%) | 196 (25%) | 147 (18.7%) | 35 (4.5%) | < 0.001 | 785 (100%) |
Normal (1–4.8) | 2871 (88.7%) | 267 (8.2%) | 77 (2.4%) | 23 (0.7%) | 3238 (100%) | |
Lymphocytosis (> 4.8) | 33 (100%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 33 (100%) | |
Missing | 1469 (95.4%) | 49 (3.2%) | 17 (1.1%) | 5 (0.3%) | 1540 (100%) | |
Platelet count (× 103/µL) | ||||||
Thrombocytopenia (< 150) | 294 (58.8%) | 106 (21.2%) | 85 (17%) | 15 (3%) | < 0.001 | 500 (100%) |
Normal (150–450) | 2971 (84.7%) | 352 (10%) | 142 (4%) | 44 (1.3%) | 3509 (100%) | |
Thrombocytosis (> 450) | 59 (81.9%) | 11 (15.3%) | 2 (2.8%) | 0 (0%) | 72 (100%) | |
Missing | 1456 (96.1%) | 43 (2.8%) | 12 (0.8%) | 4 (0.3%) | 1515 (100%) | |
