Table 2 Model performance in early prediction of prognosis in COVID19 patients in the internal validation cohort.
Model | No significant treatment versus O2 therapy or more | No critical care required versus critical care* or death | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC | TP/TN/FP/FN | Sensitivity | Specificity | Accuracy | Precision | NPV | AUC | TP/TN/FP/FN | Sensitivity | Specificity | Accuracy | Precision | NPV | |
OLR | ||||||||||||||
Model1 | 0.880 (0.855–0.904) | 193/1199/236/48 | 80.1% (74.5–84.9) | 83.6% (81.5–85.4) | 83.1% (81.2–84.8) | 45% (40.2–49.8) | 96.2% (94.9–97.1) | 0.903 (0.869–0.937) | 75/1336/251/14 | 84.3% (75–91.1) | 84.2% (82.3–85.9) | 84.2% (82.4–85.9) | 23% (18.5–28) | 99% (98.3–99.4) |
Model2A | 0.889 (0.865–0.912) | 195/1119/209/43 | 81.9% (76.4–86.6) | 84.3% (82.2–86.2) | 83.9% (82–85.7) | 48.3% (43.3–53.3) | 96.3% (95–97.3) | 0.905 (0.869–0.940) | 81/1164/313/8 | 91% (83.1–96) | 78.8% (76.6–80.9) | 79.5% (77.4–81.5) | 20.6% (16.7–24.9) | 99.3% (98.7–99.7) |
Model2B | 0.866 (0.841–0.892) | 181/1147/261/53 | 77.4% (71.4–82.5) | 81.5% (79.3–83.5) | 80.9% (78.9–82.8) | 41% (36.3–45.7) | 95.6% (94.3–96.7) | 0.914 (0.884–0.944) | 72/1312/247/11 | 86.7% (77.5–93.2) | 84.2% (82.2–85.9) | 84.3% (82.4–86) | 22.6% (18.1–27.6) | 99.2% (98.5–99.6) |
Model3 | 0.894 (0.871–0.917) | 192/1082/210/40 | 82.8% (77.3–87.4) | 83.7% (81.6–85.7) | 83.6% (81.6–85.4) | 47.8% (42.8–52.8) | 96.4% (95.2–97.4) | 0.922 (0.892–0.953) | 76/1199/242/7 | 91.6% (83.4–96.5) | 83.2% (81.2–85.1) | 83.7% (81.7–85.5) | 23.9% (19.3–29) | 99.4% (98.8–99.8) |
Model4 | 0.907 (0.884–0.929) | 189/835/172/31 | 85.9% (80.6–90.2) | 82.9% (80.5–85.2) | 83.5% (81.3–85.5) | 52.4% (47.1–57.6) | 96.4% (95–97.6) | 0.927 (0.894–0.96) | 68/1046/100/13 | 84% (74.1–91.2) | 91.3% (89.5–92.8) | 90.8% (89–92.3) | 40.5% (33–48.3) | 98.8% (97.9–99.3) |
KMA model | 0.723 (0.693–0.753) | 129/108/1308/106 | 54.9% (61.4) | 7.6% (6.3–9.148.3-) | 14.4% (12.7–16.1) | 9% (7.5–10.6) | 50.5% (43.6–57.4) | 0.728 (0.678–0.778) | 43/1395/171/42 | 50.6% (39.5–61.6) | 89.1% (87.4–90.6) | 87.1% (85.4–88.7) | 20.1% (14.9–26.1) | 97.1% (96.1–97.9) |
MEWS | 0.598 (0.563–0.633) | 129/314/1023/98 | 56.8% (50.1–63.4) | 23.5% (21.2–25.9) | 28.3% (26.1–30.6) | 11.2% (9.4–13.2) | 76.2% (71.8–80.2) | 0.631 (0.574–0.689) | 41/1112/371/40 | 50.6% (39.3–61.9) | 75% (72.7–77.2) | 73.7% (71.5–75.9) | 10% (7.2–13.3) | 96.5% (95.3–97.5) |
