Figure 4
Interventions targeting stochastic events during infection or transmission reduce the efficiency of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. (A) Schematic showing events necessary for the generation and population-level establishment of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. (B) Reduction in generation rate of new double mutant lineages that establish in the entire population caused by interventions targeting different events required to create a new surviving viral variant (n = 1000 simulations per condition). Each intervention reduces the stated parameter value by 90%. Parameter value changes are relative to the control parameter set given in Table 1, with 0.1% of new infections lasting > 30 days after symptom onset. The “reduced transmissibility” condition refers to a 90% reduction in the transmission advantage of the variant over wild-type under steady-state transmission conditions, leading to a lower reproductive number R0 of 1.05.
