Figure 2

The treatment effect (change ratio) of protection before and after matching. Treatment effect of protection represents the level of forest cover loss and carbon emissions avoided before and after matching. Effect size is calculated by dividing the average forest cover loss rate per country in the counterfactual by the forest cover loss rate in the treatment area (protected area), or vice-versa when the latter is larger. The same formula is used for estimating the treatment effect for carbon emissions. Negative values indicate that more forest cover was lost, or more carbon was emitted, inside protected areas than outside.