Table 5 Operating characteristics of different prediction rules for 30-day and in-hospital mortality.

Model	Score	30-day mortality					In-hospital mortality
Model	Score	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV	Youden Index	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV	Youden Index
(A) Derivation cohort
CURB-65	≥ 1	100.0	0.0	7.6	NA	0	100.0	0.0	12.5	NA	0
	≥ 2	86.4	37.8	10.2	97.1	0.242	84.4	39.0	16.5	94.6	0.234
	≥ 3	43.9	78.7	14.4	94.5	0.226	43.1	79.8	23.4	90.8	0.229
	≥ 4	15.2	95.5	21.7	93.2	0.107	14.7	96.1	34.8	88.7	0.108
	5	3.0	99.8	50.0	92.6	0.028	1.8	99.7	50.0	87.7	0.015
PSI class	≥ II	100.0	0.1	7.6	100.0	0.001	100.0	0.1	12.5	100.0	0.001
	≥ III	100.0	8.4	8.2	100.0	0.084	100.0	8.9	13.6	100.0	0.089
	≥ IV	98.5	36.0	11.2	99.7	0.345	98.2	37.9	18.4	99.3	0.361
	V	59.1	84.7	24.1	96.2	0.438	54.1	86.5	36.4	93.0	0.406
CHUBA	≥ 1	95.5	38.3	11.3	99.0	0.338	95.4	40.2	18.6	98.4	0.356
	≥ 2	77.3	68.9	16.9	97.4	0.462	74.3	71.0	26.8	95.1	0.453
	≥ 3	56.1	88.3	28.2	96.1	0.444	49.5	90.0	41.2	92.6	0.395
	≥ 4	25.8	97.4	44.7	94.1	0.232	20.2	97.9	57.9	89.6	0.181
	5	4.6	99.8	60.0	92.7	0.044	3.7	99.9	80.0	87.9	0.036
(B) Validation cohort
CURB-65	≥ 1	100.0	0.0	7.4	NA	0	100.0	0.0	9.2	NA	0
	≥ 2	90.7	29.9	9.4	97.6	0.206	89.6	30.2	11.5	96.7	0.198
	≥ 3	64.0	68.6	14.0	96.0	0.326	62.3	69.0	16.8	94.8	0.313
	≥ 4	27.9	91.6	21.1	94.1	0.195	26.4	91.8	24.6	92.5	0.182
	5	7.0	98.9	33.3	93.0	0.059	6.6	99.0	38.9	91.3	0.056
CHUBA	≥ 1	98.8	18.9	8.9	99.5	0.177	99.1	19.3	11.0	99.5	0.184
	≥ 2	91.9	56.2	14.4	98.9	0.481	88.7	56.8	17.1	98.0	0.455
	≥ 3	64.0	81.3	21.5	96.6	0.453	60.4	81.8	25.0	95.3	0.422
	≥ 4	29.1	93.8	27.2	94.3	0.229	25.5	93.8	29.3	92.6	0.193
	5	2.3	99.2	18.2	92.7	0.015	1.9	99.1	18.2	90.9	0.010

Data are presented as percentage or n.
CURB-65, confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥ 65; PSI, pneumonia severity index; CHUBA, confusion, hypoxemia, urea, bedridden, albumin; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; NA, not applicable.

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