Figure 2
From: A novel methodology for epidemic risk assessment of COVID-19 outbreak
The geographical distribution of the six risk factors (a–f) can be compared with the COVID-19 total cases (g), the total deaths (h) and the intensive care occupancy (i). Cases and deaths have been cumulated up to July 14, 2020, i.e. at the end of the first epidemic wave; the intensive care data have been recorded on April 2, 2020, i.e. just before the epidemic peak. The risk indicators have been multiplied for the population of each region and normalized between 0 and 1 (the color scale for temperature has been reversed, i.e. dark colors mean low temperatures, see Methods). A concentration of dark colors in the northern regions is roughly visible for almost all the indicators and the correlations between the single factors and the damages range from 0.70 to 0.95. Maps were realized with QGIS 3.10 (https://qgis.org/en/site/). (l) Crichton’s Risk Triangle. (m) Risk Index assessment framework: risk indicators (factors) are reported in red, risk components in black.
