Figure 4

Kappa coefficients comparing the relative probability-of-use by month. YH: year-to-year (y–y in the legend) comparisons for historical study period using RSFh; ID: inter-decadal comparisons; YC: year-to-year comparisons for contemporary study period using RSFc; YI: year-to-year comparisons for intermediate forecast scenario; YS: year-to-year comparisons for severe forecast scenario. Sample size varies based on the number of years for which data was collected in that month (November not shown due to low sample size). Asterisks denote pairwise significance of difference between categories of comparison (***, p < 0.001; **, p < 0.01; *, p < 0.05).