Figure 4

Correlation between observed and modelled Kawasaki disease (KD) rates. Modelled rates have been obtained from the exponentiated risk ratios of the multivariable hierarchical Bayesian model posteriors, multiplied by the expected rate. (a) Multi-year mean of observed and modelled KD rates, where each dot represents 1 of the 100 regions (groups of forward sorting areas). (b) Regional mean of observed and modelled KD rates. The rates were aggregated across all of Canada, and each dot represents 1 month of the 13 years. (c) Time series of observed (black) vs modelled (red) KD rates averaged over Canada from April 2004 to March 2017.