Table 2 Parameters of the 33 provinces in China with publicly available data COVID-19 outbreak models.
Province | \(N_0\) | \(\sigma \) | \(\beta _{01}\)a | \(\beta _{02}\)b | \(R^2\) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(\text {Anhui}\) | \(7499.0\pm 1217.0\) | \(30.190\pm 186.9\) | \(0.62\pm 0.067\) | – | 0.91 |
\(\text {Beijing}\) | \(3947.0\pm 500.8\) | \(60.350\pm 477.4\) | \(0.56\pm 0.036\) | \(10.75\pm 2.726\) | 0.78 |
\(\text {Chongqing}\) | \(2330\pm 67.1\) | \(0.061\pm 0.003\) | \(28.19\pm 2.526\) | – | 0.97 |
\(\text {Fujian}\) | \(1356 \pm 62.3\) | \(0.054 \pm 0.004\) | \(36.66 \pm 5.359\) | \(250000 \pm 2.8(-14)\) | 0.93 |
\(\text {Gansu}\) | \(288.6\pm 19.1\) | \(2.077\pm 0.531\) | \(1.03\pm 0.07\) | \(3787\pm 3663\) | 0.74 |
\(\text {Guangdong}\) | \(6169\pm 176\) | \(0.05\pm 0.003\) | \(31.84\pm 2.706\) | − | 0.97 |
\(\text {Guangxi}\) | \(1164.0\pm 46.3\) | \(0.054\pm 0.004\) | \(23.61\pm 2.655\) | – | 0.95 |
\(\text {Guizhou}\) | \(1086.0\pm 169.5\) | \(22.820\pm 104.8\) | \(0.6\pm 0.061\) | – | 0.91 |
\(\text {Hainan}\) | \(1119\pm 200\) | \(20.61\pm 95.04\) | \(0.64\pm 0.078\) | – | 0.88 |
\(\text {Hebei}\) | \(1999\pm 176.8\) | \(46.66\pm 221.6\) | \(0.6\pm 0.032\) | \(96550\pm 1.532\times 10^{-13}\) | 0.90 |
\(\text {Heilongjiang}\) | \(4198\pm 1129\) | \(1.229\pm 0.832\) | \(0.7\pm 0.146\) | \(11.9\pm 6.088\) | 0.79 |
\(\text {Henan}\) | \(8154\pm 975.6\) | \(43.23\pm 261.9\) | \(0.65\pm 0.052\) | – | 0.89 |
\(\text {Hong Kong}\) | \(2.6\times 10^6\pm 6.9\times 10^7\) | \(0.0003\pm 0.006\) | \(221.3\pm 5691\) | \(3.2\pm 4.698\) | 0.83 |
\(\text {Hubei}\) | \(1.1\times 10^6\pm \)200,600 | \(37.26\pm 369.8\) | \(0.45\pm 0.04\) | – | 0.90 |
\(\text {Hunan}\) | \(5647\pm 537.7\) | \(33.82\pm 113.3\) | \(0.68\pm 0.042\) | – | 0.85 |
\(\text {Inner Mongolia}\) | \(905.3\pm 247.1\) | \(1.03\pm 0.622\) | \(0.69\pm 0.139\) | \(14.87\pm 8.254\) | 0.69 |
\(\text {Jiangsu}\) | \(2133\pm 65.6\) | \(0.073\pm 0.004\) | \(15.74\pm 1.399\) | 100,000\(\pm 1.239\times 10^{-14}\) | 0.96 |
\(\text {Jiangxi}\) | \(3243\pm 99\) | \(0.09\pm 0.006\) | \(10.54\pm 0.937\) | – | 0.96 |
\(\text {Jilin}\) | \(311.6\pm 8.8\) | \(0.083\pm 0.005\) | \(11.33\pm 0.918\) | \(97710\pm 1.375\times 10^9\) | 0.97 |
\(\text {Liaoning}\) | \(839.6\pm 231.6\) | \(16.75\pm 96.38\) | \(0.67\pm 0.134\) | \(4.53\pm 1.841\) | 0.80 |
\(\text {Macau}\) | \(264.8\pm 110.4\) | \(0.604\pm 0.479\) | \(0.71\pm 0.238\) | \(34.21\pm 46.650\) | 0.37 |
\(\text {Ningxia}\) | \(368.4\pm 96.1\) | \(23.140\pm 175.3\) | \(0.64\pm 0.115\) | – | 0.80 |
\(\text {Qinghai}\) | \(78.6\pm 4.9\) | \(35.9\pm 73.33\) | \(0.84\pm 0.039\) | – | 0.91 |
\(\text {Shaanxi}\) | \(1762\pm 298.9\) | \(37.740\pm 291.8\) | \(0.64\pm 0.074\) | – | 0.85 |
\(\text {Shandong}\) | \(9032\pm 2857\) | \(28.3\pm 370.7\) | \(0.46\pm 0.074\) | – | 0.74 |
\(\text {Shanghai}\) | \(2567\pm 353.8\) | \(24.33\pm 84.53\) | \(0.65\pm 0.054\) | \(12.51\pm 3.579\) | 0.78 |
\(\text {Shanxi}\) | \(1012\pm 157\) | \(14.22\pm 36.75\) | \(0.64\pm 0.064\) | \(7.34\pm 1.575\) | 0.83 |
\(\text {Sichuan}\) | \(4656\pm 1292\) | \(24.94\pm 230.2\) | \(0.56\pm 0.096\) | – | 0.78 |
\(\text {Tianjin}\) | \(1061\pm 99.3\) | \(24.32\pm 57.34\) | \(0.6\pm 0.03\) | \(10.81\pm 1.919\) | 0.85 |
\(\text {Tibet}\) | – | – | – | – | – |
\(\text {Xinjiang}\) | \(801.9\pm 159.9\) | \(25.11\pm 172.6\) | \(0.53\pm 0.061\) | – | 0.89 |
\(\text {Yunnan}\) | \(1255\pm 102.7\) | \(32.490\pm 77.14\) | \(0.65\pm 0.03\) | \(3.49\pm 4.682\) | 0.80 |
\(\text {Zhejiang}\) | \(7090\pm 1869\) | \(28.35\pm 253\) | \(0.7\pm 0.136\) | – | 0.81 |
