Figure 2

The prediction for \(R_0\) and simulation data. Left panel: actual \(R_0^\text {(simulated)}\) against the naïve prediction of Eq. (1), \(R_0^\text {(predicted)}=p\tau\). Right panel: \(R_0^\text {(simulated)}\) against the prediction of Eq. (4). The straight line is \(R_0^{(\text {simulated})}=R_0^{(\text {predicted})}\). Each dot corresponds to a combination of p and \(\tau\) (the values of p are color coded, \(\tau\) is between 1 and 100).