Figure 4

Probability analysis for disease deterioration following an early second NP SARS-CoV-2 PCR test in SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals with a “positive window”. (a) Probability of infected adults ≥ 18 years with a “positive window” tested a second time within the first week following diagnosis to deteriorate to severe COVID-19. Blue circles represent individuals who tested negative, orange circles represent individuals who tested positive and green circles represent individuals who were not tested in the week following diagnosis. Grey lines indicate 95% confidence intervals. (b) Log odds ratio (OR) for severe COVID-19 was calculated by the result of the early second PCR test in patients with a “positive window” and without. OR > 0 indicated larger risk in the population that tested positive compared to the population tested negative. Calculated log odds ratios are presented along with gray lines indicating 95% confidence intervals. (c) Same probability analysis for individuals ≥ 60 years old. (d) Log odds ratio (OR) for severe COVID-19 for individuals ≥ 60 years old.