Figure 4

Spreading by type of city. Simulations are run in each city with different values of \(\Phi\), obtained by the randomization procedure described in the text. Each box reflects 100 runs and displays the median, quartiles, the 5% and 95% confidence intervals. In (a), \(R_{early}\) (obtained over three weeks after the onset of \(10^4\) cases) as a function of \(\Phi\), as in Fig. 3a. The peak incidence \(I_{\text {max}}\) is shown in (b), the time to the peak since the beginning of the simulation, \(t(I_{max})\), in (c) and the final epidemic size in (d), all as a function of \(\Phi\). All four panels correspond to the baseline mobility before lockdown.