Figure 6

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program. (a) Results of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Each dot represents one simulation run. The y-axis represents the incremental costs of the PrEP program compared with no PrEP program. The x-axis represents incremental QALY with the PrEP program compared with no PrEP program. The black diagonal line represents cost per QALY gained of 5.0 million JPY. Therefore, the blue dots (below the line) are simulations with cost-effectiveness and the red dots (above the line) are simulations without cost-effectiveness. (b) The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve shows the percentage of simulations for which the PrEP program was more cost-effective compared with a scenario without the PrEP program at a cost-effectiveness threshold. (c) The change in probability of being cost-effective for the same set of parameters with the varied time horizon.