Table 1 Parameter values for the Markov model and cost-effectiveness analysis.

From: Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a pre-exposure prophylaxis program for HIV prevention for men who have sex with men in Japan

Parameter†

Baseline value

Sensitivity range***

Transition probability per year and PrEP efficacy

Infection probability for those without PrEP (Sn to HIVn)

0.03820

0.026–0.05432

Probability of dying from Non-HIV/AIDS-related causes (Sn to Dn and Sp to Dp)

0.001423,33

0.0003–0.061023,33

PrEP efficacy for reducing infection probability‡

0.9934,35

0.63–1.0032

Probability of AIDS development (HIVn to AIDSn and HIVp to AIDSp)

0.01336

0.000–0.08736

Probability of dying due to HIV infection (HIVn to Dn and HIVp to Dp)

0.005137

0.0042–0.006637

Probability of dying due to AIDS (AIDSn to Dn and AIDSp to Dp)

0.03438

0.027–0.04938

Costs (in USD)

PrEP pills for Sp§

35.1/pill39

35.1–54.539

Screening for HIV and other STIs in the HIV-negative population (Sp and Sn)

52.4/visit39

36.7–74.539

ART treatment for HIVn, HIVp, AIDSn, and AIDSp

1,936.7/person-month40

1,364.9–1,949.940

Screening for STIs except HIV and health checkups in the HIV-positive population (HIVn, HIVp, AIDSn, and AIDSp)*

207.6/visit39,40

149.4–411.139,40

AIDS hospitalization for AIDSn and AIDSp**

13,454.5/person-month39,41

3,287.6–34,934.739,41

Annual QALYs

Sp

1.0

0.93–1.027

Sn

0.95

0.94–0.9627

HIVn and HIVp

0.6228

0.5829–0.9930

AIDSn and AIDSp

0.4514

0.29–0.6214

Dn and Dp

0.0

 
  1. PrEP, pre-exposure prophylaxis.
  2. †Transition probabilities are per year and costs are per month.
  3. ‡The transition probability (Sp to HIVp) is the product of the transition probability (Sn to HIVn) and 1-(PrEP efficacy).
  4. § Cost of PrEP pills per month calculated as a product of PrEP pill cost (per pill) and the number of pills per month (30 pills).
  5. Screening for susceptible and uninfected individuals in the cohort (Sp, Sn) includes the test for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) performed every 3 months. Monthly screening cost was derived by dividing the screening cost every 3 months by 3.
  6. *HIV-positive people (HIVn, HIVp, AIDSn, and AIDSp) need to take a screening test for STIs except HIV and have a health checkup.
  7. **The cost of AIDS hospitalization (per month) calculated as a product of the probability of hospitalization for AIDSn and AIDSp per month and the mean cost of hospitalization per month.
  8. ***Sensitivity ranges were used for the one-way sensitivity analysis.
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