Figure 3
From: Dynamical regulations on mobility and vaccinations for controlling COVID-19 spread
The \(M_{HV}\) model hypothesis, incorporating forcing by homestay \(H\%\) and percentage vaccinations \(V_c\%\) on disease spread dynamics, fitted to the data in four regulatory-wise contrasting island nations: Top row panel: Daily homestay \(H(t)\%\) and the percentage vaccinations \(V_c(t)\%\) over time: Australia: No major V-forcing nor H-forcing: Taiwan: No major V-forcing but high H-forcing, Sri Lanka: Major increase in both V-forcing and H-forcing, United Kingdom: Major increase in V-forcing and no H-forcing. Second and third row panels: The model \(M_{HV}\) fitted to new case, C(t), and death, D(t), data, and the resulting net reproductive rate, \(R0(H(t),V_c(t))\), over time, given in the Bottom row panel. The \(R0<1\) indicates a tendency towards decease-extinction. The values of the model selection criterion AIC are given in Table 1. The model fitted to all 124 countries are given in the Supplement S1, with parameter values and their CI’s given in the Supplement S2.
