Figure 2

(Upper panel) The case reproduction number \(R_c(m)\) of COVID-19 for the Lombardy from 02/24/2020 up to 02/18/2020. Color vertical lines indicate the starting time of different containment measures (see caption of Fig. 1). Black circles represent \(R_c(m)\) obtained by means of the log-likelihood maximization procedure whereas cyan diamonds are used for \(R_c(m)\) estimated from the WT method [Eq. (5) in “Methods”]. (Lower panel) The daily number of imported cases \(\mu (m)\) estimated by the log-likelihood maximization procedure is plotted in thin grey whereas solid line is used for its weekly average.