Table 1 Demographics, health risk factors, preparedness and response indicators, structural economical-political determinants.

From: Global ecological analysis of COVID-19 mortality and comparison between “the East” and “the West”

 

Median (min; max)

rMCD

b (95% CI)#

Demographics

Population size (million)

1250 (1–1420)

−0.094†

−0.086 (−0.226 to 0.053)†

Population density (km−3)

83 (2–8358)

0.205

−0.128 (−0.190 to 0.067)*

GPD per capita, USD

5,152 (369–80,504)

0.808†

0.512 (0.392 to 0.631)†*

Median age (years)

29.6 (15.2–48.4)

0.803

0.509 (0.388–0.631)*

People 65 + years of age (%)

6.7 (1.3–28.4)

0.744

0.480 (0.360–0.600)*

Urban population (%)

60.0 (13.3–100.0)

0.621

0.484 (0.360–0.608)*

Households with 4 + members (%)

52.3 (13.5–93.4)

−0.660

−0.491 (−0.619 to 0.363)*

International migrants (%)

3.0 (0.04–92.9)

0.310

0.167 (0.035–0.298)*

Health risk factors

All−cause mortality (per 1,000 people)

7.2 (1.2–15.4)

−0.413

0.129 (−0.008 to 0.251)*

Obesity prevalence (%)

20.2 (2.1–37.9)

0.674

0.591 (0.476–0.707)*

Prevalence of raised blood glucose (%)

7.7 (4,0–19.6)

0.489

0.098 (−0.037 to 0.232)

Prevalence of raised blood pressure (%)

25.4 (11.0–33.4)

−0.486

−0.267 (−0.413 to 0.121)*

Current tobacco smoking prevalence (%)

24.9 (13.0–39.1)

−0.011

0.442 (0.315 to 0.569)*

BCG immunization coverage (%)

year 1990

89.5 (13.0–99.0)

0.115

0.035 (−0.161 to 0.232)

year 2019

93.0 (25.0–99.0)

−0.013

0.083 (−0.105 to 0.270)

Multidimensional preparedness

Avg IHR score index (%)

66.0 (17.0–99.0)

0.484

0.379 (0.250–0.507)*

GHS index (%)

41.3 (16.2–83.5)

0.606

0.422 (0.287–0.557)*

UHC service coverage index (%)

68.0 (25.0–89.0)

0.718

0.537 (0.422–0.651)*

Medical doctors (per 10,000 population)

15.68 (0.1–84.2)

0.584

0.493 (0.324–0.662)*

Hospital beds (per 10,000 population)

19.0 (1.0–129.8)

0.482

0.287 (0.096–0.479)*

Previous cases of SARS (‘Yes’ vs. ‘No’)

28 (18.0%)

0.545§

−0.037 (−0.523 to 0.450)

Structural determinants

EIU democracy index (0–10)

5.5 (1.1–9.9)

0.421

0.361 (0.232–0.491)*

Variety of democracy (%)

38.0 (9.0–78.0)

0.222

0.277 (0.150–0.404)*

Gini coefficient (%)

36.0 (24.2–63.0)

−0.081

−0.172 (−0.314 to 0.031)*

Literacy rate (%)

91.4 (19.1–100.0)

0.462

0.471 (0.369–0.573)*

Current health expenditure (% GDP)

6.4 (2.1–16.9)

0.515

0.349 (0.192–0.506)*

Government expenditure on essential services (% GDP)

13.8 (5.2–32.5)

−0.227

−0.246 (−0.398 to 0.094)*

Inefficient government bureaucracy (0–30)

10.3 (0.5–23.1)

0.481

0.406 (0.271–0.542)*

Political stability and absence of violence (%)

37.9 (0.0–97.6)

0.175

0.238 (0.095–0.381)*

Government effectiveness index (%)

45.2 (0.0–100.0)

0.403

0.382 (0.247–0.516)*

Air transport, passengers (million)

4.1 (0.0–926.7)

0.223

0.205 (0.040–0.372)*

Island countries (‘Yes’ vs. ‘No’)

18 (11.5%)

0.079§

−0.367 (−0.779 to 0.044)

  1. Robust correlation coefficient (rMCD) based on the Minimum Covariance Determinant estimator was computed to estimate the strength of the association between the covariate and the log of COVID-19 deaths per million. * Significant p-values for b coefficients with robust standard errors of the simple OLS regression models against COVID-19 deaths per million (logged). # Covariates were standardized before computing OLS regression coefficients. † Log-transformed to normalize the distribution frequency. § Not significant student t-value calculated to compare log of COVID-19 mortality between countries with and without previous SARS cases.
  2. BCG Bacillus Calmette-Guerin; COVID-19   coronavirus disease 2019; EIU   Economist intelligence unit; GDP   gross domestic product; GHS   Global Health Security; IHR   International Health Regulations; MCD   Minimum Covariance Determinant; SARS   Severe acute respiratory syndrome; UHC = universal health coverage.
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