Figure 2

Maximum spore concentrations of Paenibacillus larvae in pooled, extracted honey relative to future and historical AFB occurrence. (a) Maximum 2019 spore concentrations of large-scale (L) beekeepers; (b) maximum 2020 spore concentrations of L beekeepers; (c) maximum 2019 spore concentrations of small-scale (S) beekeepers. Samples highlighted in red indicate occurrence of AFB in the subsequent year from the year the sample was collected in. Samples highlighted in blue indicate historical occurrence of AFB within the preceding four years. Samples with open centers are those missing information on future and/or historical AFB occurrence. Dotted lines represent cut-off values delimiting categories of future AFB risk where two spores per gram of honey differentiates low from moderate risk and 100 spores per gram of honey differentiates moderate from high risk. Circles represent current antibiotic use or cessation of antibiotic use after 2017. Triangles represent those beekeepers who have never used antibiotics or cessation during or prior to 2017. Squares represent missing information on antibiotic use.