Table 3 Proposed significance of variables in final model of prediction of future AFB risk.
Variable category | Variable | Explanation of odds ratio | Proposed significance for beekeepers |
|---|---|---|---|
Demographic | Beekeeper Size | The odds of being in a higher AFB risk category are greater for large-scale beekeepers than for small-scale beekeepers | Potential selection bias during beekeeper enrolment Large size of operations may increase likelihood of close proximity to sources of spores |
General Management | Indoor Overwintering of Hives | The odds of being in a higher AFB risk category are greater for beekeepers overwintering a large proportion of hives indoors than beekeepers overwintering fewer hives indoors | Biosecuirty must be considered with indoor overwintering Return colonies to apiaries they are collected from; identify hives for traceability Reduce any tendency toward the indoor overwintering of weak colonies |
Purchase of Used Equipment | The odds of being in a higher AFB risk category are greater for beekeepers that have purchased used equipment than for those beekeepers who have not | Minimize the purchase of used equipment whenever possible If used equipment must be purchased, ensure professional inspection and/or testing Ensure appropriate quarantine and identification to improve traceability | |
Prevention of AFB | Current Antibiotic Use | The odds of being in a higher AFB risk category are greater for those beekeepers that are currently using or have recently used antimicrobials than for those that have never used antimicrobials or have not used them recently | Current or recent use likely reflective of recent experience with or known risk of AFB |
Confidence in AFB Recognition | The odds of being in a higher AFB risk category are greater for beekeepers that are very confident at recognizing AFB than those that are somewhat or not confident at recognizing AFB | Ability to recognize AFB likely reflective of previous experience with AFB | |
Movement of Colonies between Apiaries | The odds of being in a higher AFB risk category are greater for beekeepers that move honey-producing colonies between apiaries than those who do not | Minimize the movement of honey-producing colonies between apiaries whenever possible If colonies must be moved, ensure appropriate identification to improve traceability |
