Figure 3

Juvenile proportion of long-tailed ducks from Danish hunting returns in relation to North-western Siberian weather in May and June: (a) precipitation and (b) temperature, (c) estimated lemming abundance in the Western Taimyr Peninsula in the previous year, and (d) North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) three years before. Numbers indicate the year (1982–2017) of the observed data point and circles show the corresponding estimates based on Eq. (2). Triangles show estimates for the period 1967–1981 from which no observations were available (the proportion of juveniles as conditioned on all other data and parameters in the Bayesian model).