Table 2 Statistics of the forecast performance of our model in 2021.

From: Extended compartmental model for modeling COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia

 

Error type\forecast for

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Weekly incidence cases

Median of RAE [Q1, Q3]

Comparison to baseline

2.9 [1.6, 4.1]%

\(\theta \) = 0.14

3.2 [1.9, 6.7]%

\(\theta \) = 0.17

6.0 [2.4, 17.8]%

\(\theta \) = 0.34

15.0 [4.8, 51.2]%

\(\theta \) = 0.57

Weekly incidence hospitals

Median of RAE [Q1, Q3]

Comparison to baseline

7.6 [4.1, 12.2]%

\(\theta \) = 0.39

8.5 [4.0, 16.0]%

\(\theta \) = 0.26

11.3 [6.2, 23.2]%

\(\theta \) = 0.29

18.3 [5.9, 35.2]%

\(\theta \) = 0.38

Weekly incidence deaths

Median of RAE [Q1, Q3]

Comparison to baseline

9.8 [3.9, 20.3]%

\(\theta \) = 0.45

9.8 [4.1, 18.3]%

\(\theta \) = 0.27

9.8 [4.2, 18.7]%

\(\theta \) = 0.19

9.8 [4.1, 21.2]%

\(\theta \) = 0.16

  1. The first row in the data cells is the median of RAE with interquartile range in square brackets (1st and 3rd quartiles) and the second row is the relative performance of our model compared to the baseline model, measured by the ratio \(\uptheta \).
Back to article page