Table 3 Performance of the new and Korean undiagnosed diabetes screening method in the development and validation datasets.

From: Comparisons of the prediction models for undiagnosed diabetes between machine learning versus traditional statistical methods

 

Model

Screeing method

Feature

AUC

(95% CI)

Youden index

Sensitivity (%)

Specificity (%)

PPV

NPV

PLR

NLR

Train & Internal Validation Set

Lee model*

Risk score

Sex, Age, WC, Family history of diabetes, Hypertension status, Smoking status, Alcohol consumption

0.750

(0.722 to 0.778)

36

86

51

0.07

0.99

1.74

0.28

Logistic Regression

Logistic Regression

0.786

(0.761 to 0.811)

42.1

89.50

52.60

0.08

0.99

1.88

0.2

Random Forest

Random Forest Classifier

0.781

(0.756 to 0.806)

43.5

82.70

60.80

0.08

0.98

2021

0.22

LGBM

LightGBM Classifier

0.777

(0.751 to 0.803)

42.4

80.80

61.50

0.08

0.98

2.26

0.21

XGB

XGBoost Classifier

0.786

(0.761 to 0.811)

42.7

82.80

61.20

0.08

0.98

2.31

0.18

Ada

AdaBoost Classifier

0.785

(0.76 to 0.81)

42.4

80.30

62.10

0.08

0.99

2.12

0.32

External Validation set

Lee

Risk score

Sex, Age, WC, Family history of diabetes, Hypertension status, Smoking status, Alcohol consumption

0.759

(0.741 to 0.777)

36

90

46

0.08

0.99

1.67

0.21

Logistic Regression

Logistic Regression

0.801

(0.786 to 0.816)

46.4

86.40

60.00

0.1

0.99

2.16

0.23

Random Forest

Random Forest Classifier

0.792

(0.776 to 0.808)

46.1

83.00

63.10

0.11

0.99

2.25

0.27

LGBM

LightGBM Classifier

0.795

(0.779 to 0.811)

45.8

81.90

64.00

0.11

0.98

2.27

0.28

XGB

XGBoost Classifier

0.802

(0.787 to 0.817)

44.4

90.00

54.50

0.1

0.99

1.98

0.18

Ada

AdaBoost Classifier

0.784

(0.768 to 0.8)

42.4

82.90

59.50

0.1

0.99

2.05

0.29

  1. *Lee et al. 20125, When Lee model’s performance was tested, data from 2019, 2020 were used to build prediction model and data from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 were used to validate. WC: Waist circumference, RHR: Resting heart rate, LGBM: Light Gradient Boosting Machine, XGB: Extreme Gradient Boosting, Ada: Ada Boost, AUC: The receiver operating characteristics curve under the curve.
  2. For this study, five different machine learning classification algorithms were used to predict undiagnosed diabetes. Based on their performance assessed by AUC, results from the best performed machine learning classification was used.