Figure 6
From: Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades
Earth system constant heating acceleration. The acceleration rates are estimated from a quadratic in time WLS regression of the annual GOHC time-series (see “Methods” section). The in-situ ocean estimates from this study (blue bars) are compared to GCOS ocean estimates7 (red bars), and satellite ocean estimates20 (MOHeaCAN; orange bars). The non-ocean components (green bars) are estimated by summing the atmosphere, land and cryosphere GCOS7 heat content time series. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) estimates of warming acceleration (bars with black contours) are computed from a linear OLS regression accounting for autocorrelation17,47, over global TOA net radiative flux (white bar) and near-global TOA net radiative flux (which excludes latitudes higher than 60°, represented by the hatched white bar). Uncertainties for all estimates are shown at the 95% confidence level and take into account serial autocorrelation (solid lines) (see “Methods”). For the ocean heat content accelerations, the uncertainties taking into account model-generated internal variability are also displayed (dashed lines). A positive value indicates that the heat content is accelerating, while a negative value suggests deceleration.
