Table 7 Area Under the time-dependent ROC curve (AU-ROC) and the Precision-Recall curve (AUC-PR) values computed for the cardio-metabolic comorbidities and survival on the subjects of the test set at 2, 4, 6, and 8 years since the baseline wave.

From: A dynamic probabilistic model of the onset and interaction of cardio-metabolic comorbidities on an ageing adult population

Clinical outcome

 

t=2

t=4

t=6

t=8

 

Diabetes

AU-ROC

0.808

0.852

0.833

0.819

iAU-ROC = 0.828

AUC-PR

0.073

0.238

0.387

0.477

iAUC-PR = 0.294

N positive

(n=46)

(n=82)

(n=114)

(n=142)

 

N total

(N=2152)

(N=2072)

(N=1892)

(N=1447)

 

Positive rate

0.021

0.039

0.060

0.098

 

Heart problems

AU-ROC

0.621

0.621

0.643

0.663

iAU-ROC = 0.637

AUC-PR

0.039

0.102

0.187

0.298

iAUC-PR = 0.157

N positive

(n=50)

(n=115)

(n=169)

(n=231)

 

N total

(N=1988)

(N=1935)

(N=1785)

(N=1403)

 

Positive rate

0.025

0.059

0.095

0.165

 

Hypertension

AU-ROC

0.733

0.735

0.740

0.755

iAU-ROC = 0.741

AUC-PR

0.156

0.254

0.370

0.492

iAUC-PR = 0.318

N positive

(n=122)

(n=181)

(n=260)

(n=289)

 

N total

(N=1458)

(N=1416)

(N=1312)

(N=1034)

 

Positive rate

0.084

0.128

0.198

0.279

 

Survival

AU-ROC

0.846

0.807

–

–

iAU-ROC = 0.827

AUC-PR

0.253

0.369

–

–

iAUC-PR = 0.311

N positive

(n=74)

(n=109)

–

–

 

N total

(N=1587)

(N=1013)

–

–

 

Positive rate

0.047

0.108

–

–

 
  1. For each clinical outcome and for each time point, the number of subjects belonging to the positive class in their actual follow-up (i.e., experiencing the outcome in reality within that time, N positive), the number of subjects included in the analysis (N total) and their ratio (positive rate) are reported. Finally, the last column reports the iAU-ROC and iAUC-PR calculated over the entire time interval.
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