Table 1 AIDS incidence and mortality rate ratios and avoidable cases and deaths.

From: Evaluating social protection mitigation effects on HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis through a mathematical modelling study

Year

No social protection

Strong social protection

Rate ratio

95% CI

Rate ratio

95% CI

Incidence

2021

1.04

[1.02; 1.09]

0.9994

[0.998; 0.9997]

2025

1.08

[1.02; 1.20]

0.96

[0.91; 0.99]

2030

1.13

[1.04; 1.31]

0.92

[0.85; 0.97]

Avoidable cases (2020–2030)

25,548

[7858, 59,205]

− 12,656

[4507; 25,561]

 

Mortality

2021

1.03

[1.02; 1.07]

0.9995

[0.998; 0.9997]

2025

1.14

[1.08; 1.22]

0.93

[0.89; 0.96]

2030

1.21

[1.12; 1.34]

0.87

[0.82; 0.92]

Avoidable deaths (2020–2030)

12,887

[7789; 19,093]

− 6480

[4240; 9486]

  1. AIDS incidence and mortality rate ratios for specific years with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Avoidable AIDS cases and deaths from 2020 to 2030 with 95% CI. Moderate social protection scenario as the reference category.
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