Table 3 Simulation results of scenarios with changing malaria prevalence.
From: Modeling pediatric antibiotic use in an area of declining malaria prevalence
Scenario | Percent decrease in malaria prevalence from baseline | Diagnostic prevalence | Absolute simulation outcomes | Relative simulation outcomes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Malaria only | Mixed malaria-NMFI infection | NMFI only | Absolute antibiotics prescribed | Total febrile population | Percent antibiotics prescribed among total febrile population | Percent change in absolute antibiotic prescription compared to baseline | ||
A | 0 | 38.0% (33.1–43.1%) | 14.2% (13.0–15.3%) | 47.8% (43.9–51.6%) | 639 (574–694) | 1000 (1000–1000) | 63.9% (57.4–69.4%) | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) |
B | 10 | 35.6% (30.8–40.5%) | 13.2% (12.2–14.2%) | 51.2% (47.3–55.0%) | 626 (560–682) | 962 (957–967) | 65.1% (58.3–70.8%) | − 2.0% (− 2.7 to − 1.4%) |
C | 20 | 32.9% (28.3–37.7%) | 12.3% (11.4–13.1%) | 54.8% (50.9–58.6%) | 614 (545–671) | 924 (914–934) | 66.4% (59.3–72.3%) | − 4.0% (− 5.4 to − 2.9%) |
D | 30 | 30.1% (25.7–34.6%) | 11.2% (10.5–11.9%) | 58.8% (54.9–62.4%) | 601 (531–660) | 886 (871–901) | 67.8% (60.3–73.9%) | − 6.0% (− 8.1 to − 4.3%) |
E | 40 | 26.9% (22.9–31.2%) | 10.0% (9.4–10.6%) | 63.1% (59.4–66.5%) | 588 (517–649) | 848 (828–868) | 69.4% (61.4–75.7%) | − 8.0% (− C10.7 to − 5.7%) |
F | 50 | 23.5% (19.8–27.4%) | 8.7% (8.3–9.2%) | 67.8% (64.3–71.0%) | 575 (502–638) | 810 (785–835) | 71.0% (62.6–77.6%) | − 10.1% (− 13.4 to − 7.2%) |
G | 60 | 19.7% (16.5–23.2%) | 7.3% (7.0–7.6%) | 72.9% (69.8–75.8%) | 562 (488–626) | 772 (742–801) | 72.9% (63.9–79.8%) | − 12.1% (− 16.1 to − 8.6%) |
H | 70 | 15.6% (12.9–18.5%) | 5.8% (5.6–6.0%) | 78.6% (75.9–81.1%) | 549 (473–615) | 734 (699–768) | 74.9% (65.3–82.3%) | − 14.1% (− 18.8 to − 10.0%) |
I | 80 | 10.9% (9.0–13.1%) | 4.1% (4.0–4.2%) | 85.0% (82.9–86.8%) | 537 (458–604) | 696 (655–735) | 77.2% (66.8–85.0%) | − 16.1% (− 21.5 to − 11.5%) |
J | 90 | 5.8% (4.7–7.0%) | 2.1% (2.1–2.2%) | 92.1% (90.8–93.1%) | 524 (443–594) | 658 (612–702) | 79.8% (68.6–88.1%) | − 18.1% (− 24.2 to − 12.9%) |
